Which Crypto Whales Are Buying or Selling Before the November inflation-data">US CPI?

In the days leading up to the November US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, major crypto whale cohorts exhibited mixed behaviors, with some increasing holdings while others reduced exposure. These contrasting moves reflect varied risk assessments amid uncertainty over inflation data, underscoring a fragmented market outlook ahead of a key macroeconomic event.

What happened

Data from multiple sources, including Glassnode, Santiment, WhaleStats, CryptoQuant, and Chainalysis, confirm that large-scale holders of Bitcoin and Ethereum adjusted their positions in divergent ways ahead of the November CPI announcement.

Specifically, Bitcoin whales—defined as addresses holding 1,000 or more BTC—showed mixed activity. Some increased their Bitcoin accumulation, while others sold significant amounts in the days before the CPI print, according to Glassnode data cited by BeinCrypto. This indicates no uniform strategy among large Bitcoin holders.

Ethereum whales, holding 10,000 or more ETH, demonstrated a clearer net selling trend prior to the CPI release. Santiment analytics, as referenced by BeinCrypto, reported that these addresses reduced their ETH balances on exchanges. Complementary data from WhaleStats showed that some of the top 100 ETH whale wallets moved tokens off exchanges, which can be interpreted as a move toward longer-term holding. However, these same wallets also offloaded altcoins including Solana and Cardano, suggesting selective portfolio adjustments.

Exchange flow data from CryptoQuant highlighted increased volatility in BTC and ETH transfers during the week before the CPI report. Spikes were observed both in inflows to exchanges—often associated with potential selling pressure—and outflows, which may signal accumulation or withdrawal for holding outside exchanges.

Historical analysis from Chainalysis adds context, suggesting that around major macroeconomic data releases such as the CPI, whales tend to rebalance portfolios to hedge against anticipated volatility. This pattern appears consistent with the recent activity, although the specific strategies vary among actors.

Why this matters

The contrasting behaviors among crypto whales ahead of the November CPI highlight a fragmented market sentiment that could influence volatility in the broader crypto ecosystem. Divergent moves suggest varying risk assessments: some whales reducing exposure may be positioning defensively against a potentially negative inflation surprise, while others increasing holdings might anticipate stable or favorable inflation data or view dips as buying opportunities.

Ethereum whales’ net selling could reflect heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic risks, consistent with Ethereum’s exposure to interest rate and inflation dynamics. Conversely, Bitcoin’s mixed but partially accumulative activity aligns with its narrative as a potential inflation hedge or “digital gold,” where some holders see value preservation amid uncertainty.

The simultaneous presence of both accumulation and liquidation among large holders could amplify market volatility post-CPI. As whales adjust their positions rapidly in response to actual inflation data, price swings may be more pronounced, affecting liquidity and price discovery.

Furthermore, movements of tokens off exchanges by some whales reduce immediate liquidity, which may increase price impact if selling pressure arises elsewhere. This dynamic can contribute to sharper price movements, even if the motivations behind these transfers remain unclear.

What remains unclear

Despite detailed on-chain data and exchange flow metrics, significant questions persist regarding the underlying motivations behind whale transactions. The available data does not clarify whether these moves are driven by hedging strategies, liquidity needs, speculative positioning, or a combination thereof.

Additionally, the distinction between institutional and individual whale behaviors is not discernible from public data, limiting insight into whether coordinated or independent actors dominate these movements. The role of derivative exposures—such as futures and options positions that are not visible on-chain—is also unknown, which could materially affect the interpretation of on-chain transfers.

It remains uncertain how the market will react if the CPI deviates significantly from expectations. Whether the divergent pre-CPI positioning by whales will amplify or dampen subsequent volatility cannot be determined from current data.

Finally, the analysis excludes retail and smaller holder behavior, which also influence market dynamics around key macroeconomic releases, leaving a partial view of the overall market response.

What to watch next

The actual November US CPI print and its deviation from market expectations, which will be a key catalyst for immediate whale and broader market reactions.
Post-CPI on-chain data tracking whale accumulation or liquidation trends, to assess whether pre-CPI positioning leads to rapid portfolio rebalancing.
Exchange inflow and outflow patterns following the CPI release, which may signal shifts in selling pressure or accumulation sentiment.
Updates or disclosures from institutional crypto holders, if available, to differentiate their strategies from individual whales in response to inflation data.
Derivative market indicators such as futures and options volumes and open interest, to understand how off-chain positions might interact with on-chain whale behavior.

The divergent crypto whale activity ahead of the November CPI underscores a market grappling with uncertainty. While some large holders appear cautious, others maintain or increase exposure, reflecting differing views on inflation risks and crypto’s role as a hedge. Without clearer insight into motivations or derivative exposures, the full implications remain ambiguous. Monitoring market reactions post-CPI will be essential to understanding how these pre-event positions influence volatility and price dynamics in the crypto space.

Source: https://beincrypto.com/crypto-whales-buy-sell-tokens-ahead-us-cpi/. This article is based on verified research material available at the time of writing. Where information is limited or unavailable, this is stated explicitly.