Macquarie Predicts U.S. Senate Close to Crypto Market Structure and GENIUS Rules Deal

The U.S. Senate is reportedly nearing a bipartisan agreement on a regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market, incorporating elements of the GENIUS Act. This development could mark a significant shift in how digital assets are overseen, with potential implications for market clarity, investor protection, and U.S. competitiveness in the global crypto industry.

What happened

According to a Macquarie report cited by CoinDesk on December 17, 2025, the U.S. Senate is close to finalizing a bipartisan deal that addresses crypto market structure and regulatory oversight, including provisions derived from the Generating Economic New Innovation and Unleashing Sustainable Capital (GENIUS) Act. The GENIUS Act is designed to clarify regulatory jurisdiction over crypto assets, aiming to foster market integrity, protect investors, and promote innovation.

The proposed agreement reportedly includes enhanced regulatory clarity for key areas such as crypto exchanges, digital asset exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and stablecoins. A notable feature of the deal is the effort to harmonize the regulatory roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which have historically had overlapping and sometimes conflicting oversight responsibilities. Senate aides quoted by CoinDesk have indicated that this harmonization could streamline regulatory processes that have previously delayed product approvals, including Bitcoin ETFs.

Prior regulatory approaches, particularly the SEC’s enforcement-focused strategy and the patchwork of state-level regulations, have been criticized for creating uncertainty and impeding innovation. An independent analysis from the Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance highlights these challenges, noting that fragmented rules and aggressive enforcement have stifled market development.

Macquarie’s analysis, as summarized in the CoinDesk report, interprets the emerging Senate framework as a potential turning point. It suggests that clearer rules could improve the United States’ global competitiveness in crypto markets by encouraging greater institutional participation and reducing regulatory ambiguity.

Why this matters

The anticipated Senate deal and the GENIUS Act framework represent a structural recalibration of crypto regulation in the United States. By addressing longstanding jurisdictional overlaps between the SEC and CFTC, the framework could reduce regulatory fragmentation that has hindered product development and market growth. This harmonization is particularly significant given past delays in approving digital asset ETFs, which are seen as gateways for institutional investment.

Furthermore, the GENIUS Act’s focus on market structure reform aims to mitigate systemic risks and enhance transparency. According to independent analyses, this could help reduce fraud and market manipulation, longstanding concerns in the crypto sector. Investor protection measures embedded in the framework may help build trust among retail and institutional participants alike.

The shift away from the SEC’s historically enforcement-heavy approach toward a more balanced regulatory environment may foster innovation by providing clearer compliance pathways. This is especially relevant in a market where regulatory uncertainty has prompted some firms to relocate operations overseas or limit product offerings.

From a global perspective, the framework could position the U.S. more favorably against other jurisdictions competing to attract crypto business. Clearer rules and a more predictable regulatory environment may encourage institutional investors and startups to remain or enter the U.S. market, potentially enhancing the country’s leadership in digital finance innovation.

What remains unclear

Despite these developments, several key details about the Senate agreement remain undisclosed. The exact legislative language and scope of the final deal have not been made public, meaning specifics regarding regulatory requirements, enforcement mechanisms, and potential exemptions are unknown.

The interaction between the forthcoming federal framework and existing state-level crypto regulations is also unresolved. It is unclear whether the deal will include provisions for federal preemption of state rules, which could significantly affect regulatory consistency and market operations.

The framework’s impact on different market participants is not detailed. For example, how smaller crypto startups versus large institutional players will be affected by compliance costs and regulatory burdens remains an open question. The balance between fostering innovation and ensuring oversight is delicate and not yet defined in this context.

Additionally, the treatment of emerging crypto technologies such as decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and Web3 applications has not been specified. These areas pose unique regulatory challenges and their omission leaves a gap in understanding how comprehensive the new framework will be.

What to watch next

• The release of the official Senate bill text or legislative language to clarify the precise regulatory provisions and enforcement mechanisms.
• Statements or guidance from the SEC and CFTC regarding how their jurisdictions will be harmonized under the new framework.
• Federal responses or proposals addressing the relationship between the new federal framework and existing state-level crypto regulations, including any preemption clauses.
• Industry feedback, particularly from crypto exchanges, ETF issuers, and startups, on the anticipated regulatory changes and their operational impact.
• Further analysis on how the framework will incorporate or regulate emerging technologies like DeFi and NFTs.

While the reported Senate agreement signals progress toward a more coherent and balanced crypto regulatory regime, significant uncertainties remain. The absence of detailed legislative text and clarity on enforcement and jurisdictional boundaries leaves open questions about the framework’s ultimate effectiveness and inclusivity. Stakeholders will be closely monitoring forthcoming disclosures to assess how this evolving regulatory landscape will shape the future of the U.S. crypto market.

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/12/17/macquarie-sees-u-s-senate-near-crypto-deal-as-market-structure-genius-rules-advance. This article is based on verified research material available at the time of writing. Where information is limited or unavailable, this is stated explicitly.