JPMorgan Projects Stablecoin Market Could Reach $600 Billion by 2028

JPMorgan projects that the stablecoin market could expand from approximately $150 billion in 2023 to around $600 billion by 2028. This forecast reflects a shift from stablecoins being primarily crypto trading tools toward broader adoption for real-world payments and settlements, signaling deeper integration with traditional financial systems.

What happened

JPMorgan, a leading Wall Street bank, released a projection estimating that the stablecoin market capitalization could reach $600 billion by 2028, a fourfold increase from the current market size of about $150 billion in 2023. This projection is grounded in the expectation that stablecoins will increasingly be used for real-world payment applications rather than mainly for cryptocurrency trading or speculative purposes.

The current stablecoin market is dominated by a handful of major issuers, including Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), which have so far been widely used within crypto trading ecosystems but are also gaining traction for payment uses. JPMorgan’s analysis highlights growing institutional adoption, particularly for cross-border payments and settlement processes, as a key driver behind the projected growth.

Supporting this trend, the bank itself has engaged in the space through initiatives like JPM Coin, a digital coin launched in 2019 to facilitate near-instantaneous payments on JPMorgan’s blockchain network for institutional clients. This move exemplifies how traditional financial institutions are beginning to integrate stablecoin technology into legacy payment infrastructure.

Additionally, reports from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) underscore stablecoins’ potential to bridge digital currencies with traditional finance, especially for cross-border payments. However, the BIS and other regulatory bodies emphasize that regulatory clarity remains a critical factor influencing stablecoin adoption.

Why this matters

The JPMorgan projection signals a structural shift in the role of stablecoins from niche crypto trading instruments to mainstream financial tools that could complement or compete with existing payment rails such as SWIFT and ACH. If realized, this growth would mark a significant step toward integrating digital currencies into the traditional financial ecosystem.

Institutional adoption, particularly for cross-border payments and settlement, is a notable aspect of this shift. Stablecoins offer the potential for faster, cheaper, and more transparent transactions compared to traditional correspondent banking models. This could reshape how international payments are executed and settled, impacting liquidity management and operational efficiency for financial institutions.

Moreover, JPMorgan’s forecast suggests increased institutional trust and possibly greater regulatory acceptance of stablecoins in the coming years. The growing use of stablecoins for real-world payments implies a convergence of crypto-native digital assets with regulated financial infrastructure, potentially broadening the user base beyond crypto traders to include corporate treasuries, payment processors, and retail users.

However, the broader significance also hinges on how regulatory frameworks evolve. Stablecoins’ promise to bridge traditional and digital finance depends heavily on clear rules regarding their backing, transparency, consumer protections, and systemic risk management. Without such clarity, stablecoins may face limitations in scaling their use cases beyond crypto ecosystems.

What remains unclear

Despite the projection and supporting trends, several important questions remain unanswered. JPMorgan has not publicly detailed the assumptions or modeling methodology behind its $600 billion forecast, limiting independent verification and scrutiny.

Data on the actual share of stablecoin transaction volumes attributable to real-world payments versus crypto trading remains limited. This makes it difficult to quantify the pace or scale of the shift toward payment use cases.

The projection does not specify how the stablecoin market might interact with or be affected by the emergence of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which could overlap with or displace certain stablecoin functions, especially in cross-border contexts.

Additionally, the breakdown of projected growth between retail payments, institutional payments, and cross-border settlements is not provided, leaving open questions about which segments will drive the expansion.

Technological and infrastructural challenges also remain underexplored. The extent to which interoperability between crypto-native stablecoins and traditional banking systems will improve, including issues around liquidity, settlement finality, and smart contract risks, is not addressed in detail.

Finally, the potential impacts of regulatory developments—such as stablecoin legislation in the US, EU, or other jurisdictions—are not incorporated into the projection and could substantially influence the market trajectory.

What to watch next

Regulatory developments in major jurisdictions, including the US and EU, concerning stablecoin backing, transparency, and consumer protections.
Institutional adoption trends, particularly the extent to which banks and payment providers integrate stablecoins into cross-border payment and settlement systems.
Announcements or updates from JPMorgan and other major financial institutions on stablecoin-related products or blockchain payment infrastructure.
Emergence and rollout of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and their interaction or competition with stablecoins in payment use cases.
Data releases providing clearer insights into stablecoin transaction volumes segmented by use case (trading, payments, settlements).

While JPMorgan’s projection points to a significant expansion of the stablecoin market anchored in real-world payment adoption, many uncertainties remain around regulation, technology, and market dynamics. The coming years will be critical in determining whether stablecoins can fulfill their potential as a bridge between digital assets and traditional finance or if regulatory and competitive challenges will constrain their growth.

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/19/wall-street-bank-jpmorgan-says-stablecoin-market-could-grow-to-usd600-billion-by-2028. This article is based on verified research material available at the time of writing. Where information is limited or unavailable, this is stated explicitly.