How Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Shifting to Net Accumulation Eases Market Pressure

Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) have transitioned from net sellers to net accumulators in late 2025, according to multiple on-chain analytics sources. This shift reduces sell pressure historically associated with these holders and may influence Bitcoin’s market dynamics, including price stability and volatility.

What happened

In the latter part of 2025, on-chain data revealed a notable behavioral change among Bitcoin wallets classified as long-term holders—those retaining BTC for more than one year. According to CoinDesk’s reporting, these LTHs moved from a net selling position to net accumulation. This reversal marks a departure from their typical role as significant suppliers of Bitcoin during market downturns.

Independent blockchain analytics firms corroborate this trend. Glassnode’s insights indicate a steady increase in LTH supply over the past six months, confirming accumulation rather than liquidation. Similarly, CryptoQuant data shows a decline in LTH outflows to exchanges, which historically serve as venues for sell-offs. Together, these metrics point to a reduction in the volume of Bitcoin being offloaded by long-term holders.

Interpretations of these data sets vary but share a common theme. CoinDesk suggests that accumulation reflects growing investor confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition, implying expectations of price appreciation or at least stability. Glassnode analysts propose that reduced sell pressure from LTHs could contribute to enhanced price stability by limiting the coins available for sale during periods of market stress. CryptoQuant highlights that fewer LTH outflows to exchanges might reduce the likelihood of sudden, large-scale sell-offs that have historically precipitated sharp price corrections.

While these interpretations lean towards bullish sentiment, alternative explanations exist. CryptoQuant’s reports imply that accumulation might also stem from broader market conditions, such as a scarcity of attractive alternative investments or liquidity constraints, rather than purely optimism about Bitcoin’s fundamentals. However, these nuances are not explicitly detailed in the available data.

Why this matters

The shift of long-term holders to net accumulation has meaningful implications for Bitcoin’s market structure and price dynamics. Historically, LTHs have played a significant role in supplying Bitcoin to the market during downturns, exerting downward pressure on prices. Their reduced selling activity alleviates this headwind, potentially creating a more balanced supply-demand environment.

From a structural perspective, a steady increase in LTH supply suggests a more entrenched base of holders with longer investment horizons. This could translate into reduced volatility, as fewer coins are likely to be moved or sold in reaction to short-term market fluctuations. Glassnode’s analysis supports this by linking lower LTH sell pressure to improved price stability.

The decline in LTH outflows to exchanges, as reported by CryptoQuant, further reinforces this dynamic. Since exchanges are primary venues for liquidation, fewer transfers from long-term holders to exchanges imply a reduced risk of sudden large-scale sell-offs that can trigger rapid price declines. In this way, the accumulation trend may dampen the amplitude of price corrections.

However, the broader market context remains complex. The accumulation by LTHs occurs alongside other market forces, including short-term trader behavior, new investor inflows, and macroeconomic factors, none of which are fully captured in the current data. The absence of detailed information on institutional participation or ETF-related activity also limits a comprehensive understanding of the full market impact.

What remains unclear

Despite clear evidence of accumulation by long-term holders, several important questions remain unanswered. The primary uncertainty concerns the motivations driving this shift. The available data and analysis do not clarify whether accumulation is driven by fundamental belief in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, hedging against macroeconomic risks, or other strategic considerations.

Additionally, the role of institutional investors and ETF activity in influencing LTH behavior is not addressed in the sources. No direct data or disclosures from institutional entities or ETF issuers are cited, leaving a gap in understanding how these actors may contribute to or respond to the accumulation trend.

The sustainability of this accumulation over varying market conditions is also unknown. The current trend could be temporary or influenced by specific factors not captured in the on-chain data. Furthermore, the relationship between LTH accumulation and short-term trader activity, as well as new investor inflows, remains unexplored.

Finally, demographic or geographic breakdowns of the accumulating holders are absent, as is any qualitative data such as investor surveys that might illuminate confidence levels or intentions behind the behavioral shift.

What to watch next

Continued monitoring of LTH supply levels and outflows to exchanges to assess whether the accumulation trend persists.
Data releases or disclosures from institutional investors or ETF issuers that could shed light on their influence over long-term holder behavior.
Reports or analyses integrating macroeconomic developments and regulatory changes that might impact accumulation or selling patterns.
On-chain analytics tracking the interaction between long-term holders and short-term traders or new market entrants to understand broader market dynamics.
Any qualitative research or surveys providing insight into investor sentiment and motivations behind accumulation.

While the shift of long-term Bitcoin holders to net accumulation eases a significant source of market sell pressure, key questions about the drivers and durability of this trend remain unresolved. Understanding these factors will be critical to assessing its full impact on Bitcoin’s price dynamics and broader market stability.

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/30/long-term-holders-turn-net-accumulators-easing-a-major-bitcoin-headwind. This article is based on verified research material available at the time of writing. Where information is limited or unavailable, this is stated explicitly.