Galaxy Predicts Stablecoins Will Surpass ACH Transaction Volume by 2026

Galaxy Digital projects that stablecoin transaction volumes will exceed those of the Automated Clearing House (ACH) network in the United States by 2026, reflecting rapid growth in blockchain-based payments. This forecast highlights ongoing shifts in payment infrastructure but also raises questions about regulatory, technological, and adoption challenges that remain unresolved.

What happened

Galaxy Digital, a crypto finance firm, has made a projection that stablecoin transaction volumes will surpass ACH transaction volumes by 2026. The ACH network, which processed approximately 30 billion transactions in 2022 in the U.S., currently dwarfs stablecoin volumes, which reached about 2 billion transactions in 2023. This projection is based on observed growth trends and increasing adoption of stablecoins, which are blockchain-based digital assets pegged to fiat currencies.

Stablecoins offer near-instant settlement and operate 24/7, unlike ACH transfers that function only on business days and have settlement delays. This operational difference is a key factor cited by Galaxy Digital in explaining the potential for stablecoins to overtake ACH in transaction volume. However, Galaxy Digital has not publicly disclosed the detailed methodology or assumptions underlying their forecast, limiting independent verification.

Regulatory uncertainty is acknowledged as a significant barrier to mainstream stablecoin adoption. U.S. Treasury, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and other regulatory bodies continue to discuss frameworks for stablecoin oversight, but no definitive regulatory regime has been finalized. Additionally, technological factors such as blockchain scalability, interoperability with traditional banking systems, and integration with existing payment rails are critical to sustaining high transaction volumes.

Independent analysis from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) supports the view that blockchain and stablecoins could reshape payment systems, but emphasizes that technological and regulatory challenges must be addressed. Some fintech analysts argue that ACH’s entrenched position, regulatory clarity, and deep integration with the banking system will likely mean stablecoins complement rather than replace ACH by 2026.

Why this matters

The projection that stablecoins could surpass ACH transaction volumes by 2026 signals a potential structural shift in the U.S. payment ecosystem, moving from legacy systems toward blockchain-based financial infrastructure. Stablecoins’ ability to provide faster settlement, 24/7 availability, and programmable features represents a departure from traditional payment rails that operate on limited schedules and often involve settlement delays.

If realized, this shift could influence how value transfers are conducted at scale, affecting everything from consumer payments to institutional settlements. It could also impact the role of banks, payment processors, and regulators in overseeing and facilitating transactions. The rise of stablecoins aligns with broader trends toward digitization and decentralization in finance, potentially offering greater transparency and efficiency.

However, the transition raises complex issues around regulatory oversight, financial stability, and technological resilience. Without clear regulatory frameworks, stablecoins face significant hurdles in gaining institutional trust and widespread adoption. Moreover, the technological infrastructure must evolve to handle transaction volumes at or above ACH levels without compromising security or decentralization.

What remains unclear

The Galaxy Digital projection does not clarify the assumptions or models used to forecast stablecoin growth, leaving the reliability of the estimate uncertain. There is also no comprehensive, standardized data on stablecoin transaction volumes across all blockchain platforms, complicating direct comparison with ACH volumes.

Key open questions include how U.S. and international regulators will finalize stablecoin oversight frameworks and what impact these decisions will have on issuance and adoption. It is also unclear which technological advancements—such as Layer 2 scaling solutions or cross-chain interoperability—will be implemented to support high transaction volumes sustainably.

Consumer and merchant adoption rates remain uncertain, particularly given competing payment innovations like central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and real-time payment systems. Additionally, the capacity of stablecoin issuers to manage liquidity, reserve backing, and operational risks at scale under stressed market conditions is not addressed in the available data.

Finally, broader economic factors such as inflation, interest rates, and macroeconomic stability, which influence payment system usage, are not factored into current projections, adding another layer of uncertainty.

What to watch next

Regulatory developments in the U.S. regarding stablecoin frameworks, including actions by the Treasury and SEC.
Technological progress on blockchain scalability and interoperability solutions that enable higher transaction throughput without compromising security.
Adoption trends among consumers and merchants, particularly the extent to which stablecoins gain traction in mainstream payments versus niche or institutional use cases.
Data releases or research providing more granular and standardized measurements of stablecoin transaction volumes across different blockchain networks.
Responses from traditional payment networks and banks to the growing competition posed by stablecoins, including potential integration or partnership strategies.

While Galaxy Digital’s projection highlights a significant potential milestone for stablecoins, the path to surpassing ACH transaction volumes involves multiple unresolved regulatory, technological, and economic variables. The coming years will be critical in determining whether stablecoins can sustainably integrate into mainstream payment systems or remain a complementary innovation within the broader financial ecosystem.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/galaxy-stablecoins-ach-transaction-volume-2026?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound. This article is based on verified research material available at the time of writing. Where information is limited or unavailable, this is stated explicitly.