Can Bitcoin Overcome the Typical U.S. Trading Hour Selloffs?

Bitcoin’s continuous 24/7 trading model contrasts sharply with the limited hours of U.S. equity markets, yet data shows a recurring pattern of price selloffs aligned with U.S. trading hours. Understanding this dynamic is increasingly important as institutional participation grows and new financial products evolve, potentially reshaping Bitcoin’s intraday price behavior.

What happened

Bitcoin trades around the clock on global cryptocurrency exchanges, unlike traditional U.S. equity markets that operate from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern Time on weekdays. Despite this continuous availability, analysis of Bitcoin market behavior, particularly through Bitcoin ETFs such as the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), reveals a consistent pattern of increased selloffs during U.S. market hours.

SEC filings for BITO and related market performance reports document that Bitcoin price declines tend to intensify near the open and close of U.S. equity trading sessions. This intraday sell pressure coincides with spikes in volatility and trading volume, as confirmed by independent data from analytics platforms like Glassnode and CryptoCompare. These platforms show that the sell pressure and volatility align closely with U.S. market open and close times rather than occurring evenly across the 24-hour cycle.

Statements from ETF issuers such as ProShares and Valkyrie, drawn from earnings calls and investor presentations, acknowledge this correlation. They attribute some of the selloffs to the settlement and rebalancing activities of ETFs that primarily operate during U.S. trading hours. This suggests institutional investors, who mostly trade within U.S. market hours, exert significant influence on Bitcoin’s price movements despite the asset’s continuous trading environment.

Further analysis interprets these patterns as evidence that institutional trading activity, particularly linked to ETF portfolio management and futures settlements, creates predictable intraday sell pressure. Alternative perspectives point to additional factors, including retail investor behaviors, the impact of U.S.-based macroeconomic news releases, and timezone effects, contributing to the observed selloff patterns. Emerging data also indicates the potential weakening of this intraday pattern as global institutional participation increases and new products offering after-hours Bitcoin exposure become more common.

Why this matters

The persistence of selloff patterns tied to U.S. trading hours highlights the structural influence of traditional financial markets on the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. Although Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading theoretically allows price discovery to occur continuously and globally, the concentration of institutional trading within U.S. market hours imposes a temporal bias on price dynamics.

This has implications for market liquidity, volatility, and price efficiency. The clustering of sell pressure during specific hours can exacerbate intraday volatility, potentially impacting investor confidence and the attractiveness of Bitcoin as a tradable asset. For ETFs and other regulated investment vehicles, understanding and managing this selloff pattern is crucial for portfolio rebalancing and risk management.

From a policy perspective, the intersection of continuous crypto trading with traditional market schedules presents challenges in monitoring and regulating market behavior. It also raises questions about how future product innovations, such as spot Bitcoin ETFs with extended trading hours, might influence price stability and investor protection.

What remains unclear

Despite the documented correlation between U.S. market hours and Bitcoin selloffs, several key questions remain unanswered. The available data does not provide detailed intraday trading breakdowns by investor type, limiting the ability to conclusively attribute selloffs to institutional versus retail activity.

Additionally, while ETF filings and disclosures acknowledge the timing of rebalancing trades, they offer limited transparency on the specific intraday strategies and their direct impact on Bitcoin price movements. The causal mechanisms linking U.S. market hours to Bitcoin selloffs are not definitively established; it remains uncertain whether these patterns are driven by institutional activity alone or by a complex interplay of factors including automated trading algorithms and macroeconomic events.

The evolving nature of the crypto ecosystem further complicates analysis. Data from 2023 to 2025 may not fully capture how innovations in derivatives, ETF structures, and expanding international institutional involvement will alter intraday price dynamics. There is no conclusive evidence yet that Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading environment can fully overcome the selloff patterns tied to U.S. trading hours.

What to watch next

• The extent to which expanding international institutional participation dilutes the dominance of U.S.-based trading hour effects on Bitcoin price dynamics.
• Developments in Bitcoin derivatives and ETF structures, particularly the launch and adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs with extended or after-hours trading capabilities.
• Regulatory disclosures and filings from ETF issuers detailing intraday trading strategies and their impact on Bitcoin price volatility.
• Market data on the role of automated trading algorithms and high-frequency trading in either amplifying or mitigating selloff patterns during U.S. market hours.
• Emerging analytics tracking changes in intraday volatility and volume distribution as new products and global trading participants enter the market.

The interaction between Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading and traditional U.S. market hours remains a complex and evolving feature of its price behavior. While current data confirms a pattern of selloffs concentrated during U.S. market open and close, the underlying causes and future trajectory of this phenomenon are not fully understood. Ongoing developments in institutional participation and product innovation will be critical to watch as they may reshape Bitcoin’s intraday price dynamics over time.

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/19/can-bitcoin-break-the-curse-u-s-trading-hours-selloffs. This article is based on verified research material available at the time of writing. Where information is limited or unavailable, this is stated explicitly.