Bitwise Predicts ETFs Will Buy Over 100% of New solana-volatility-in-2025-was-twice-that-of-bitcoins">Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Supply in 2026

Bitwise Research projects that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will purchase more than 100% of the new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana in 2026, indicating ETF demand could outstrip the total newly minted coins that year. This forecast highlights a potential shift in crypto market dynamics driven by institutional investment vehicles, raising questions about liquidity, price formation, and regulatory influence.

What happened

Bitwise Research has released a projection based on current ETF filings, issuer disclosures, and estimated inflows, combined with known issuance rates for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. According to their analysis, ETFs—including those managed by firms such as Grayscale and Bitwise Asset Management—are expected to buy more than the entirety of new coins mined or created in 2026. This means ETFs would have to source additional coins from existing holders to meet demand.

The projection relies on publicly available data from SEC filings and blockchain issuance statistics. Bitcoin’s supply increases at roughly 1.7% annually through mining rewards, Ethereum’s issuance has dropped to approximately 0.4-0.5% following its transition to proof-of-stake, and Solana’s supply grows at about 8% per year due to network inflation parameters. Meanwhile, inflows into crypto ETFs have accelerated in recent years, with Canadian and U.S. Bitcoin ETFs notably expanding assets under management.

Bitwise interprets these trends as a structural imbalance where ETF demand outpaces new supply, potentially forcing ETFs to purchase coins from secondary markets. This dynamic could reduce circulating supply available on exchanges. Independent reports from Bloomberg and The Block corroborate rising institutional interest in crypto ETFs and note the potential for such demand to tighten supply conditions.

Why this matters

The prediction that ETFs could absorb over 100% of new issuance in key cryptocurrencies suggests a fundamental change in supply-demand dynamics within crypto markets. If ETFs become dominant buyers, they may increasingly rely on secondary market purchases, reducing the volume of coins freely available to retail and other investors. This could lead to lower circulating supply on exchanges, which historically impacts liquidity and price volatility.

Analysts from The Block suggest this may initially increase price volatility due to tighter supply but could enhance long-term price stability by providing steady institutional buying pressure. The presence of ETFs as consistent buyers may also encourage broader adoption by offering regulated, accessible exposure to crypto assets for institutional and retail investors alike.

On a structural level, the interplay between ETF demand and limited new issuance could alter market liquidity profiles and price discovery mechanisms. This is particularly relevant as cryptocurrencies like Ethereum have significantly reduced issuance rates post-merge, while Solana’s higher inflation rate contrasts with Bitcoin’s fixed supply schedule. The varying issuance rates mean the impact of ETF demand may differ by asset but collectively point to a growing institutional footprint in crypto markets.

What remains unclear

Despite the detailed projection, several critical questions remain unanswered. The future trajectory of ETF inflows depends heavily on regulatory approvals and market conditions, which are inherently uncertain. It is unclear whether regulators will continue to approve new crypto ETFs at the pace assumed by Bitwise or whether market sentiment will sustain the projected inflows.

Moreover, the mechanisms by which ETFs will source coins beyond new issuance are not detailed. The extent to which ETFs will purchase from retail investors, over-the-counter (OTC) markets, or other holders is unknown, as is the potential impact on liquidity and trading spreads. The research does not address how miners or stakers might respond to increased ETF demand, nor how their behavior could influence supply dynamics.

Additionally, the implications for smaller investors and overall market participants if ETFs dominate buying activity are not explored. Potential effects on secondary market liquidity, price discovery, and market depth remain open questions. The projection also does not consider the broader ecosystem participants outside ETF flows, limiting the scope of the analysis.

What to watch next

Regulatory decisions on new crypto ETF approvals, particularly in the U.S. and Canada, which will affect the pace of ETF inflows.
Disclosures from ETF issuers regarding actual inflows and acquisition strategies to assess how ETFs source coins beyond newly issued supply.
Market data on secondary market liquidity and trading volumes to evaluate the impact of ETFs absorbing more than 100% of new issuance.
Changes in miner and staking behavior in response to evolving demand dynamics, which could influence supply availability.
Broader institutional adoption trends and their influence on crypto market structure and price behavior over the course of 2026.

While Bitwise’s projection highlights a potentially transformative trend in crypto markets, significant uncertainties remain around regulatory developments, market responses, and the mechanisms of ETF coin acquisition. These factors will determine how supply-demand imbalances evolve and what broader impacts emerge for liquidity, price stability, and market participation.

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/bitwise-etfs-to-consume-over-100-of-bitcoin-ethereum-and-solanas-new-supply-in-2026/. This article is based on verified research material available at the time of writing. Where information is limited or unavailable, this is stated explicitly.