Bitwise Predicts Bitcoin Will Break Its Four-Year Cycle in 2026—What Changes to Expect

In December 2025, Bitwise Asset Management forecasted that Bitcoin will break its historically consistent four-year cycle in 2026, a pattern long linked to halving events and subsequent bull markets. This development signals potential shifts in market dynamics, institutional strategies, and the broader crypto ecosystem’s evolution.

What happened

Bitwise Asset Management publicly stated in late 2025 that Bitcoin’s established four-year cycle, which has historically aligned with its halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, is expected to break in 2026. These halving events, which reduce the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks by half, have traditionally triggered bull markets approximately every four years. Bitwise’s prediction was reported by CoinDesk on December 16, 2025, citing the firm’s proprietary analysis.

Since 2020, institutional investment in Bitcoin has increased markedly, as evidenced by filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) from major asset managers such as Grayscale and Bitwise itself, which have sought approval for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This institutional influx has coincided with a maturing crypto market ecosystem characterized by enhanced regulatory scrutiny, more robust infrastructure—including custody solutions, derivatives markets, and decentralized finance (DeFi) integration—and greater market efficiency.

Historically, Bitcoin’s volatility has peaked around halving events and the ensuing bull markets, with metrics from independent sources such as Coin Metrics and Glassnode confirming spikes in price volatility during these cycle transitions. However, analysis from Glassnode in late 2025 suggests that market volatility may now be less correlated with halving events and more influenced by external shocks, including regulatory announcements and macroeconomic developments.

Interpretations of Bitwise’s forecast vary. Some analysts view the predicted cycle break as indicative of market maturation, where price movements become less predictable purely based on halving events due to the increasing diversity of investor profiles and institutional participation. Others suggest that external macroeconomic factors—such as shifting inflation dynamics, evolving regulatory landscapes, or geopolitical events—may be disrupting the traditional cycle rather than intrinsic changes within Bitcoin’s network or investor behavior.

Why this matters

The potential disruption of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle carries significant structural implications for the crypto market and its participants. For institutional investors, who have increasingly relied on the predictability of halving-driven cycles to time entry and exit points, a break in this pattern could necessitate a reassessment of investment strategies. Fidelity Digital Assets’ 2025 Institutional Investor Survey indicates a trend toward longer-term holding and portfolio diversification, which may accelerate if timing strategies based on halving events lose efficacy.

From a market dynamics perspective, a decoupling of volatility from halving events suggests that Bitcoin’s price behavior could become more sensitive to external macroeconomic and regulatory factors. This shift might lead to more frequent short-term volatility spikes unrelated to the traditional boom-bust cycles, complicating risk management for both institutional and retail investors.

The broader crypto ecosystem’s maturation is also underscored by this development. Increasing integration of Bitcoin into traditional financial products, as documented in the Chainalysis 2025 Crypto Adoption Index, reflects a move away from purely speculative trading toward more diversified and regulated participation. This evolution may support market stability but also challenges narratives that Bitcoin’s price is primarily driven by its halving schedule.

What remains unclear

Despite Bitwise’s public prediction, the detailed data and quantitative models underpinning their forecast have not been disclosed, limiting independent verification of the claim. It remains unclear what specific metrics or analytical frameworks Bitwise used to determine that the four-year cycle will break in 2026.

Moreover, there is limited direct evidence on how institutional investors will concretely adjust their strategies in response to this predicted cycle break. While surveys indicate a general trend toward longer-term holdings and diversification, no data explicitly links these shifts to Bitwise’s forecast.

The impact of the cycle break on Bitcoin’s price trajectory is also uncertain. Analysts have not reached consensus on whether the disruption will primarily affect timing and volatility patterns or whether it could alter the fundamental price appreciation path.

The role of regulatory developments in influencing or interacting with this cycle disruption remains undefined. Regulatory bodies have not issued statements connecting regulation to changes in Bitcoin’s market cycles, and how future policy actions might reinforce or mitigate this trend is an open question.

Finally, how retail investors will respond if traditional cycle-based trading signals become unreliable is not currently known. No data or studies have yet addressed potential behavioral changes among non-institutional market participants in this context.

What to watch next

• Disclosures or detailed reports from Bitwise explaining the analytical methods or data supporting their prediction of a cycle break.
• SEC filings and institutional investor surveys that might reveal shifts in Bitcoin investment strategies, especially regarding timing and portfolio diversification.
• Volatility and price pattern analyses from independent sources such as Glassnode and Coin Metrics during and after the 2026 halving event to assess changes in market behavior.
• Regulatory announcements or policy changes in major jurisdictions that could influence Bitcoin’s market cycles or investor behavior.
• Studies or data on retail investor trading patterns post-2026 to evaluate adaptation to a potentially less predictable halving cycle.

Bitwise’s forecast that Bitcoin will break its four-year cycle in 2026 highlights a possible turning point in the crypto market’s evolution, reflecting deeper institutionalization and maturation. However, significant uncertainties remain regarding the underlying data, the precise effects on market dynamics, and investor responses. Ongoing observation of institutional filings, market volatility, regulatory developments, and investor behavior will be essential to understand how this anticipated shift unfolds.

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/16/crypto-asset-manager-bitwise-says-bitcoin-will-break-its-four-year-cycle-in-2026. This article is based on verified research material available at the time of writing. Where information is limited or unavailable, this is stated explicitly.