Bitcoin Hashrate Drops Sharply After 2024 Halving Amid China Mining Shutdowns

Following the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, the network experienced its steepest post-halving hashrate decline since the event, with an approximate 15% drop over two weeks. This contraction coincided with significant mining shutdowns in China driven by regulatory crackdowns and energy restrictions, reshaping the global distribution of Bitcoin mining power and exerting pressure on miner economics.

What happened

On April 1, 2024, Bitcoin underwent its scheduled halving, reducing the block reward by 50%. Within the ensuing two weeks, the Bitcoin network’s total hashrate declined by roughly 15%, marking the sharpest post-halving drop recorded since this cycle began. This decline was not solely a function of the reduced block rewards; large-scale mining shutdowns in China played a concurrent and significant role.

Provincial governments in Sichuan and Inner Mongolia imposed new regulations and energy consumption limits that forced many Chinese mining operations to cease or reduce activity. Estimates indicate that these shutdowns accounted for approximately 10-12% of the global hashrate capacity going offline during this period. Prior to this, China held about 18% of the global hashrate; post-shutdown, this share fell to below 10%, according to data from the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance and CoinDesk.

As a result, the geographic distribution of mining power shifted markedly. North America expanded its share from 35% to around 45%, while smaller increases were observed in Kazakhstan and Russia. Despite the drop, the network security, measured by total hashrate, remained robust at levels above 300 exahashes per second (EH/s), which is historically strong.

Miner revenues also fell sharply in the immediate aftermath, declining by approximately 25%. This drop reflects both the halving’s reduction in block rewards and the diminished hashrate, which collectively tightened miner economics. Research from Arcane Research highlights that these pressures disproportionately affected smaller or less efficient miners, accelerating exits or consolidation within the industry.

Why this matters

The combined impact of the halving and China’s regulatory-driven shutdowns has accelerated the decline in hashrate beyond patterns seen in previous halving cycles. This compound effect underscores the vulnerability of miner economics to simultaneous shocks and highlights the ongoing structural shift in Bitcoin mining’s geographic footprint.

The migration of mining power to North America and other regions with access to cheaper, cleaner energy sources suggests a trend toward greater decentralization away from China, historically the dominant mining hub. This geographic diversification can enhance network resilience by mitigating concentration risk and exposure to single-jurisdiction regulatory changes.

Despite the hashrate drop, the Bitcoin network’s security remains intact within a strong historical range, indicating that core mining operations continue to maintain robust resistance to attack. However, the pressure on miner revenues and operational viability could lead to further market consolidation, potentially increasing centralization within dominant mining pools or regions offering favorable cost structures.

These developments also have broader market and policy implications. The regulatory environment in China continues to directly influence global mining dynamics, while shifts in energy sourcing and regional mining dominance may affect the environmental footprint and political economy of Bitcoin mining worldwide.

What remains unclear

Several key questions remain unresolved due to limitations in available data and the overlapping timing of events. Notably, the precise proportion of the hashrate decline attributable exclusively to the halving versus the China shutdowns is unclear. The concurrent occurrence of these factors complicates efforts to isolate their individual impacts.

The long-term trajectory of China’s mining sector under evolving regulatory frameworks is also uncertain. It remains to be seen whether mining activity in China will rebound under new conditions or continue to diminish permanently. Similarly, the response of the Bitcoin network’s difficulty adjustment algorithm to these fluctuations over the next several periods has yet to be observed.

Further, the implications of these shifts for mining pool centralization or decentralization have not been fully analyzed. The lack of detailed, real-time disclosures from Chinese miners and the inherent opacity of mining operations globally limit comprehensive understanding of the market’s evolving structure.

What to watch next

• The Bitcoin network’s difficulty adjustment over the next 2-3 periods, which will reflect how the protocol adapts to changes in hashrate and impacts miner incentives.
• Regulatory developments in China, particularly any new policies or enforcement actions that could influence the return or further decline of mining activity in the region.
• Changes in the geographic distribution of hashrate, especially shifts in North America, Kazakhstan, and Russia, as new data emerges from blockchain analytics and third-party research.
• Miner revenue trends and operational adjustments, including potential consolidation or exit of smaller mining operations in response to sustained economic pressures.
• Reports on mining pool concentration and decentralization metrics, which could indicate whether the network is becoming more centralized within dominant pools or regions.

The post-2024 halving period has exposed Bitcoin mining to compounded pressures from protocol changes and regulatory interventions, triggering a notable redistribution of global hashrate and economic strain on miners. While network security remains strong, critical uncertainties persist around the durability of these shifts and their longer-term effects on the mining landscape and network resilience.

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/15/bitcoin-hashrate-sees-sharpest-post-halving-drop-since-2024-amid-china-mining-machine-shutdowns. This article is based on verified research material available at the time of writing. Where information is limited or unavailable, this is stated explicitly.